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☆ Defining "quality" with Astoria Advisors' founder
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

"Quality" can seem amorphic... but it does have definable characteristics. But after "quality" you should also consider other "weighty" ideas.

☆ Here are 3 ways the labor market is showing concerning deterioration underneath strong headline numbers — meaning a recession and stock-market sell-off could sneak up on investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.

Persons: —, Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge

☆ A 28-year market vet breaks down why the risk of a recession is 'higher than thought' — and warns 73 years of market history shows stocks are likely in for a terrible year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought." Here's the drop in wage growth Roberts mentions. At the moment, CEO confidence isn't great, Roberts pointed out, which could mean further trouble ahead for employment growth. AdvertisementA warning sign for stocksWhile it will take time for the labor market outlook to become clear, Roberts said stocks are already flashing signs of trouble. But that view became less popular in the second half of 2023 as the labor market proved resilient month after month amid Federal Reserve rate hikes, and inflation dropped to under 4%.

Persons: —, Lance Roberts, Roberts, St, Louis Fed, it's Organizations: Service, RIA, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal Reserve

☆ Bank turmoil is boosting appetite for specific sector ETFs. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

It appears specific sector ETFs are gaining popularity as a way to cushion bank-turmoil fallout. According to VettaFi's Todd Rosenbluth, the trend applies to ETFs holding only a few large companies in particular industries. "We're seeing this year that active management and actively managed ETFs in particular have been relatively popular in complement to an existing core strategy." Rosenbluth asserts the narrow focus of big-cap sector ETFs can boost potential gains. Yet, last week on "ETF Edge," Astoria Advisors' John Davi suggested bank upheaval could expose problems lurking in ETFs tied to specific sectors.

☆ Goldman Sachs just raised their recession probability due to stress in the banking system. These 20 stocks are least sensitive to an economic downturn, the bank says.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank have all battled woes in the last week. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York both closed in recent days as a result of a run on deposits. Silicon Valley Bank had taken significant losses on bond investments, causing depositors to worry that their money would not be safe. This fear spread to customers of Signature Bank, which then sold assets at a loss to meet liquidity demands. First Republic Bank also appeared to have insufficient liquidity to weather a bank run, fueling concerns that it would be closed down.

☆ A 27-year market vet warns that regional banks will be more reluctant to loan money to their communities in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank closure — pulling forward a recession and causing stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Depositors at other banks may fear for the security of their money, and rush to withdrawal all at once. "If those lending standards tighten, that's going to cramp consumer spending — 70% of the economy — you drag forward the recession." Naturally, such a drag on consumer spending will hurt corporate earnings, leading investors to discount forward earnings expectations, Roberts said. Right now, the median 2023 earnings per share target among major Wall Street strategists is $210. That probability level is low relative to the rest of Wall Street, according to a Wall Street Journal survey that show a median probability of 65%.

☆ U.S. banks' CDS prices surge as contagion concern widens
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Mehnaz Yasmin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 15 (Reuters) - A jump in the cost for Wall Street banks to insure bonds against default on Wednesday was another worrisome indicator of credit stress for investors amid the crisis at Credit Suisse and at U.S. regional banks. Swiss bank Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) fell to a record low on Wednesday. Five-year credit default swaps for the flagship Swiss bank hit a new record high. Credit default swaps on Credit Suisse also inverted on Wednesday with the two-year rising above the five-year, and both hit a new 52-week high, according to data from Ortex. Some analysts believe that the larger banks are resilient and are more worried about the smaller and mid-sized banks.

☆ Analysis: Sharp drop in equity premium may mark return of 60/40 portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Mehnaz Yasmin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The thinning spread between returns from stocks and bonds is set to bring the 60/40 portfolio strategy back in favor. The Fed's move to tighten monetary policy at the fastest pace in decades pumped up bond yields after nearly two years of near-zero interest rates. On the other hand, "during a recession, yields will fall and Treasury bond prices will rise," said Roberts. While the economic downturn would hit stock returns, drop in bond yields should provide some relief in such a scenario, according to analysts. "For me, the best risk-reward portfolio in this environment for now is long duration Treasury bonds, and deep value, dividend equities," Roberts said.

☆ 'The market is built on a bedrock of total complacency': A former top TD Ameritrade technical analyst says stocks will fall another 20% this year as investors begin to realize a Fed pivot isn't in the
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He also thinks earnings expectations are too high and will come down. This hawkish policy will eventually lead to a recession this year, Bierman said, a view that is shared by many on Wall Street. "The market has not priced in earnings misses, the market has priced in earnings beats," he said. Bierman's views in contextBierman's recession call has become a somewhat consensus view on Wall Street. RIA AdvisorsThis translates to lackluster expectations for stocks among Wall Street strategists.

☆ A 33-year market vet shares why history shows stocks will likely fall more than 20% further before bottoming as a recession barrels toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But Lebowitz thinks there's a much greater chance that a recession occurs, forcing the Fed to back off. And then there's the inverted yield curve, which has preceded every recession since the 1960s. RIA AdvisorsIt's also not a good environment for stocks because yield curve inversions have usually meant large downward earnings revisions, which haven't happened yet. RIA AdvisorsAnother look at history, Lebowitz said, shows that a recession has to be already underway before stocks can bottom out. The yield curve, Chicago PMI, and other analyses argue it's a matter of when but if a recession occurs.

☆ Wall Street experts are warning that stocks are in for more trouble as a robust November jobs report is crushing investor hopes of a dovish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks fell on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a robust November jobs report. But with the economy resilient, the Fed could continue to cause more pain for stocks going forward. November's jobs report, however, puts a pin the hopes of those anticipating easier policy sooner. He added: "Chairman Powell's speech earlier in the week was interpreted with a dovish lens, but that spin is likely to be reassessed based on the jobs report. Even before Friday's jobs report, some Wall Street strategists and money managers have been warning of further trouble ahead.

☆ A 26-year market vet breaks down why investing legend Jeremy Grantham is correct to compare the current market to the 2000 and 2008 'superbubbles' — and warns stocks will fall another 20%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's little reason for optimism in today's market, Lance Roberts laments. Just look at the barrage of headwinds facing stocks right now, the RIA Advisors CIO said in an October 10 commentary. At the start of this year, investing legend and founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham, said stocks were in their fourth superbubble in the last century given that market valuations had veered from historical norms so drastically. On Friday, Roberts told Insider that he agrees with Grantham's assessments, and that he sees the S&P 500 dropping to around 2,900. One of Wall Street's most bullish strategists this year, BMO's Brian Belski, cut his 2022 price target on the S&P 500 again on Friday to 4,200.

☆ Big U.S. banks' prime rate soars to highest since financial crisis
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Mehnaz Yasmin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A person enters the JPMorgan Chase & Co. New York Head Quarters in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew KellySept 21 (Reuters) - Three major U.S. banks said on Wednesday they will hike their prime lending rates by 75 basis points, bringing the rates to their highest since the global financial crisis of 2008. Central bankers expect to raise the rate to 4.6% by the end of next year, according to the median estimate of all 19 Fed policymakers. read moreA hike in interest rates typically boosts banks' profitability, since they can earn more net interest income - a metric that gauges the difference between the money banks earn on loans and pay out on deposits. However, too high interest rates can tip the economy over into a recession and squeeze consumer demand for loans, which can ultimately hurt lenders.

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